Coinbase Observes Institutional Accumulation Defying Bear Market Projections
As of February 2026, the cryptocurrency landscape presents a complex and seemingly contradictory picture. On one hand, prominent analysts from firms like CryptoQuant and Bitwise project that the bitcoin bear market could extend until at least Q3 2026. This long-term bearish sentiment is shared by several institutional research desks. However, a significant divergence is emerging in institutional behavior. Contrary to the gloomy price forecasts, data and reports indicate that many major institutions, including asset managers and crypto-native firms, are actively accumulating Bitcoin. This accumulation persists even as traditional bear market signals—such as widespread capitulation and a mass exodus of capital—remain notably absent. This creates an ambiguous market phase where sentiment analysis and on-chain behavior tell two different stories. The situation highlights a maturation in the market where long-term strategic positioning can decouple from short-to-medium-term price predictions. For platforms like Coinbase, which cater to both retail and institutional clients, this environment underscores the importance of providing robust custody, trading, and analytical tools that serve clients navigating this divergence. The actions of these accumulating institutions suggest a foundational belief in Bitcoin's long-term value proposition, betting on a recovery and growth cycle beyond the projected 2026 timeline, and positioning their portfolios accordingly in anticipation of that shift.
Bitcoin Bear Market Signals Begin to Shift as Institutional Sentiment Diverges
Julio Moreno of CryptoQuant asserts Bitcoin's bear market could persist until Q3 2026, a view echoed by Bitwise's Matt Hougan and institutional analysts. Yet paradoxically, many institutions continue accumulating BTC despite the gloomy prognosis.
The definition of a bear market grows ambiguous when traditional markers—capitulation and mass exodus—fail to materialize. With VanEck, K33 Research, and 21Shares declaring Bitcoin's four-year cycle obsolete, the duration of this downturn remains uncharted territory.
Coinbase's latest survey reveals the institutional dichotomy: 70% maintain Bitcoin remains undervalued even as they adopt bearish terminology. The SEC's 20%-decline benchmark offers little clarity in a market where conviction outlasts pessimism.
Vitalik Buterin Challenges Base's Dominance as Ethereum Shifts Layer-2 Strategy
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has declared the era of 'branded shards' effectively over, marking a philosophical pivot away from corporate-aligned layer-2 solutions like Coinbase's Base network. The MOVE challenges Base's 60% dominance of layer-2 revenue streams and $11 billion in total value secured.
Buterin's revised roadmap emphasizes native ethereum scaling over rollup-centric models, directly undermining Base's reliance on Coinbase's centralized infrastructure. This positions Base as a test case for whether corporate-backed layer-2s can maintain economic viability under Ethereum's new 'aligned scaling' paradigm.
The conflict exposes a growing tension between Ethereum's decentralization ethos and the lucrative layer-2 ecosystems built by centralized entities. Base's revenue model—like those of Arbitrum and other major rollups—now faces existential questions as Ethereum's core developers prioritize technical purity over commercial adoption.
